MACD(12,26,9) signal-line crossover on QQQ — Published Backtest & Verdict

We tested it in public: MACD(12,26,9) signal-line crossover on QQQ (2019-02-22 to 2026-10-09) returned +123.3% vs +355.6% buy-and-hold across 74 trades. Exact rules, full stats, and our honest verdict.

• Total return: +123.3% (trailed buy-and-hold at +355.6%)
• CAGR: +11.1% vs +22.0% buy-and-hold
• Max drawdown: -24.8% vs -35.1% buy-and-hold
• Win rate: 50% over 74 trades
• Period: 2019-02-22 to 2026-10-09 (QQQ), published 2026-10-10

The claim on trial

MACD signal-line crossovers time the market better than buy-and-hold.

The exact rules

• Indicator: MACD(12,26,9). MACD line = 12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA; signal line = 9-day EMA of the MACD line. EMAs seeded from the first close (recursive, alpha=2/(n+1)).
• Warmup 35 bars (slow EMA + signal line settle); first possible signal 2019-02-22.
• Signal observed at bar i close; trade prints at bar i close.
• Entry on bar i starts earning on bar i+1 (NO look-ahead: the signal bar's own move is not credited to the new position).
• Exit on bar i retains bar i's return (position was held during the bar).
• MACD line crosses ABOVE signal line -> buy at close. MACD line crosses BELOW signal line -> sell at close.
• Long only, fully invested when long, cash earns 0%. No transaction costs, no taxes modeled.

Our honest verdict

MACD got chopped up: exactly half of the 74 signals were whipsaws. It dodged the worst of every crash (max drawdown -24.8% vs -35.1%) but sat out half of one of the strongest QQQ bull runs on record (time in market 51%). The average win ran 2x the average loss — the only reason it stayed positive (+123.3% vs +355.6% buy-and-hold).

Original X thread · StratIQ track record · All published backtests

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Not financial advice — research and education only; do your own due diligence.