50/200 SMA golden cross on QQQ — Published Backtest & Verdict

We tested it in public: 50/200 SMA golden cross on QQQ (2019-10-16 to 2026-09-18) returned +238.5% vs +289.1% buy-and-hold across 3 trades. Exact rules, full stats, and our honest verdict.

• Total return: +238.5% (trailed buy-and-hold at +289.1%)
• CAGR: +19.3% vs +21.7% buy-and-hold
• Max drawdown: -22.8% vs -35.1% buy-and-hold
• Win rate: 100% over 3 trades
• Period: 2019-10-16 to 2026-09-18 (QQQ), published 2026-09-23

The claim on trial

The golden cross — the 50-day average crossing above the 200-day — is a reliable buy signal that beats buy-and-hold.

The exact rules

• Warmup 199 bars; strategy window starts 2019-10-16 (first bar with both current and previous 50/200-day SMAs fully formed).
• Signal observed at bar i close; trade prints at bar i close.
• Entry on bar i starts earning on bar i+1 (NO look-ahead: the signal bar's own move is not credited to the new position).
• Exit on bar i retains bar i's return (position was held during the bar).
• Golden cross → buy at close. Death cross → sell at close.
• Long only, fully invested when long, cash earns 0%. No transaction costs, no taxes modeled.

Our honest verdict

The strategy made +238.5% but lost to buy-and-hold (+289.1%). It earned its keep via a smoother ride (lower max drawdown, only 74% time in market), not outperformance. Signals lagged badly around COVID (entered May 2020 after the rebound had started).

Original X thread · StratIQ track record · All published backtests

Charted on TradingView (affiliate link — we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you): tradingview.com

Not financial advice — research and education only; do your own due diligence.