TSLA Stock: RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion Backtest — +173.4% vs +40.8% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion strategy on TSLA over 5 years: +173.4% return vs +40.8% buy-and-hold, 21 trades, 24% win rate, 37.9% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +173.4% (beat buy-and-hold at +40.8%)
- Win rate: 24% over 21 trades
- Max drawdown: 37.9%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.69
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On TSLA, the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +173.4% against +40.8% for simply holding — a gap of 132.6 percentage points. The strategy took 21 completed trades (5 profitable, 16 not), a 24% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 37.9% versus 65.0% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into TSLA over the same window returned +50.9%. Best single trade: +63.1% (2022-12-27 to 2023-01-27); worst: -5.0% (2022-10-07 to 2022-10-14).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A classic mean-reversion setup: buy Tesla (TSLA) when the 14-day RSI signals oversold (below 30), sell when it signals overbought (above 70).
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