NVDA Stock: RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion Backtest — +29.5% vs +1249.3% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion strategy on NVDA over 5 years: +29.5% return vs +1249.3% buy-and-hold, 3 trades, 33% win rate, 15.2% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +29.5% (trailed buy-and-hold at +1249.3%)
- Win rate: 33% over 3 trades
- Max drawdown: 15.2%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.15
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On NVDA, the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Sep 2026: +29.5% against +1249.3% for simply holding — a gap of 1219.8 percentage points. The strategy took 3 completed trades (1 profitable, 2 not), a 33% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 15.2% versus 41.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into NVDA over the same window returned +370.3%. Best single trade: +43.5% (2025-04-04 to 2025-05-14); worst: -5.0% (2022-09-01 to 2022-09-13).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Sep 2026 (generated 2026-10-01). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A classic mean-reversion setup: buy Nvidia (NVDA) when the 14-day RSI signals oversold (below 30), sell when it signals overbought (above 70).
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