NFLX Stock: RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion Backtest — +56.6% vs +189.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion strategy on NFLX over 5 years: +56.6% return vs +189.1% buy-and-hold, 12 trades, 33% win rate, 22.4% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +56.6% (trailed buy-and-hold at +189.1%)
- Win rate: 33% over 12 trades
- Max drawdown: 22.4%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.39
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On NFLX, the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +56.6% against +189.1% for simply holding — a gap of 132.5 percentage points. The strategy took 12 completed trades (4 profitable, 8 not), a 33% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 22.4% versus 53.7% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into NFLX over the same window returned +16.8%. Best single trade: +26.9% (2026-02-12 to 2026-02-27); worst: -5.0% (2023-09-22 to 2023-10-13).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A classic mean-reversion setup: buy Netflix (NFLX) when the 14-day RSI signals oversold (below 30), sell when it signals overbought (above 70).
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