MSFT Stock: RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion Backtest — +49.6% vs +107.6% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion strategy on MSFT over 5 years: +49.6% return vs +107.6% buy-and-hold, 10 trades, 40% win rate, 21.8% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +49.6% (trailed buy-and-hold at +107.6%)
- Win rate: 40% over 10 trades
- Max drawdown: 21.8%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.36
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On MSFT, the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +49.6% against +107.6% for simply holding — a gap of 58.0 percentage points. The strategy took 10 completed trades (4 profitable, 6 not), a 40% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 21.8% versus 34.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into MSFT over the same window returned +44.8%. Best single trade: +27.9% (2026-06-25 to 2026-07-30); worst: -5.0% (2022-09-06 to 2022-09-21).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A classic mean-reversion setup: buy Microsoft (MSFT) when the 14-day RSI signals oversold (below 30), sell when it signals overbought (above 70).
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