IWM Stock: RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion Backtest — +44.8% vs +60.5% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion strategy on IWM over 5 years: +44.8% return vs +60.5% buy-and-hold, 8 trades, 50% win rate, 19.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +44.8% (trailed buy-and-hold at +60.5%)
- Win rate: 50% over 8 trades
- Max drawdown: 19.5%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.34
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On IWM, the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +44.8% against +60.5% for simply holding — a gap of 15.8 percentage points. The strategy took 8 completed trades (4 profitable, 4 not), a 50% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 19.5% versus 27.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into IWM over the same window returned +36.1%. Best single trade: +24.6% (2025-04-07 to 2025-07-03); worst: -5.0% (2023-03-10 to 2023-10-23).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A classic mean-reversion setup: buy IWM when the 14-day RSI signals oversold (below 30), sell when it signals overbought (above 70).
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels