AAPL Stock: RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion Backtest — +47.9% vs +128.6% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion strategy on AAPL over 5 years: +47.9% return vs +128.6% buy-and-hold, 11 trades, 36% win rate, 22.8% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +47.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +128.6%)
- Win rate: 36% over 11 trades
- Max drawdown: 22.8%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.32
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On AAPL, the RSI 30/70 Mean Reversion trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +47.9% against +128.6% for simply holding — a gap of 80.7 percentage points. The strategy took 11 completed trades (4 profitable, 7 not), a 36% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 22.8% versus 33.4% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into AAPL over the same window returned +76.1%. Best single trade: +33.2% (2025-04-08 to 2025-08-08); worst: -5.0% (2022-09-30 to 2022-12-27).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A classic mean-reversion setup: buy Apple (AAPL) when the 14-day RSI signals oversold (below 30), sell when it signals overbought (above 70).
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