XOM Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +25.1% vs +101.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on XOM over 5 years: +25.1% return vs +101.1% buy-and-hold, 44 trades, 34% win rate, 24.0% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +25.1% (trailed buy-and-hold at +101.1%)
- Win rate: 34% over 44 trades
- Max drawdown: 24.0%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.11
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On XOM, the MACD Signal Line Crossover trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +25.1% against +101.1% for simply holding — a gap of 76.1 percentage points. The strategy took 44 completed trades (15 profitable, 29 not), a 34% win rate.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 24.0%, against 20.1% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into XOM over the same window returned +56.8%. Best single trade: +23.2% (2025-12-23 to 2026-02-17); worst: -5.0% (2023-02-10 to 2023-02-17).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy ExxonMobil (XOM) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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