WMT Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +54.6% vs +199.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on WMT over 5 years: +54.6% return vs +199.7% buy-and-hold, 43 trades, 44% win rate, 24.2% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +54.6% (trailed buy-and-hold at +199.7%)
- Win rate: 44% over 43 trades
- Max drawdown: 24.2%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.43
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On WMT, the MACD Signal Line Crossover trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +54.6% against +199.7% for simply holding — a gap of 145.1 percentage points. The strategy took 43 completed trades (19 profitable, 24 not), a 44% win rate.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 24.2%, against 23.3% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into WMT over the same window returned +84.7%. Best single trade: +16.2% (2026-10-07 to 2026-11-11); worst: -5.0% (2026-05-14 to 2026-05-21).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy Walmart (WMT) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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