UNH Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +24.6% vs -16.0% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on UNH over 5 years: +24.6% return vs -16.0% buy-and-hold, 41 trades, 27% win rate, 23.3% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +24.6% (beat buy-and-hold at -16.0%)
- Win rate: 27% over 41 trades
- Max drawdown: 23.3%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.13
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On UNH, the MACD Signal Line Crossover beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +24.6% against -16.0% for simply holding — a gap of 40.6 percentage points. The strategy took 41 completed trades (11 profitable, 30 not), a 27% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 23.3% versus 61.4% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into UNH over the same window returned -2.1%. Best single trade: +40.4% (2026-04-02 to 2026-05-19); worst: -5.0% (2023-05-31 to 2023-06-14).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy UnitedHealth (UNH) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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