TSLA Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +219.9% vs +40.8% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on TSLA over 5 years: +219.9% return vs +40.8% buy-and-hold, 42 trades, 31% win rate, 26.0% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +219.9% (beat buy-and-hold at +40.8%)
- Win rate: 31% over 42 trades
- Max drawdown: 26.0%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.82
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On TSLA, the MACD Signal Line Crossover beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +219.9% against +40.8% for simply holding — a gap of 179.1 percentage points. The strategy took 42 completed trades (13 profitable, 29 not), a 31% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 26.0% versus 65.0% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into TSLA over the same window returned +50.9%. Best single trade: +67.7% (2023-01-09 to 2023-02-22); worst: -5.0% (2022-09-12 to 2022-09-22).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy Tesla (TSLA) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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