NVDA Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +239.6% vs +1249.3% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on NVDA over 5 years: +239.6% return vs +1249.3% buy-and-hold, 41 trades, 39% win rate, 28.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +239.6% (trailed buy-and-hold at +1249.3%)
- Win rate: 39% over 41 trades
- Max drawdown: 28.5%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.95
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On NVDA, the MACD Signal Line Crossover trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Sep 2026: +239.6% against +1249.3% for simply holding — a gap of 1009.7 percentage points. The strategy took 41 completed trades (16 profitable, 25 not), a 39% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 28.5% versus 41.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into NVDA over the same window returned +370.3%. Best single trade: +45.8% (2023-05-15 to 2023-06-23); worst: -5.0% (2022-08-15 to 2022-08-19).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Sep 2026 (generated 2026-10-01). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy Nvidia (NVDA) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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