NFLX Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +79.3% vs +189.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on NFLX over 5 years: +79.3% return vs +189.1% buy-and-hold, 42 trades, 36% win rate, 33.1% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +79.3% (trailed buy-and-hold at +189.1%)
- Win rate: 36% over 42 trades
- Max drawdown: 33.1%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.50
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On NFLX, the MACD Signal Line Crossover trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +79.3% against +189.1% for simply holding — a gap of 109.9 percentage points. The strategy took 42 completed trades (15 profitable, 27 not), a 36% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 33.1% versus 53.7% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into NFLX over the same window returned +16.8%. Best single trade: +27.2% (2023-05-09 to 2023-06-22); worst: -5.0% (2022-09-16 to 2022-09-23).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy Netflix (NFLX) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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