MSFT Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +15.3% vs +107.6% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on MSFT over 5 years: +15.3% return vs +107.6% buy-and-hold, 43 trades, 33% win rate, 27.2% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +15.3% (trailed buy-and-hold at +107.6%)
- Win rate: 33% over 43 trades
- Max drawdown: 27.2%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.01
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On MSFT, the MACD Signal Line Crossover trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +15.3% against +107.6% for simply holding — a gap of 92.3 percentage points. The strategy took 43 completed trades (14 profitable, 29 not), a 33% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 27.2% versus 34.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into MSFT over the same window returned +44.8%. Best single trade: +23.3% (2026-07-02 to 2026-08-18); worst: -5.0% (2022-10-03 to 2022-10-11).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy Microsoft (MSFT) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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