JNJ Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +66.5% vs +97.0% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on JNJ over 5 years: +66.5% return vs +97.0% buy-and-hold, 37 trades, 46% win rate, 11.9% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +66.5% (trailed buy-and-hold at +97.0%)
- Win rate: 46% over 37 trades
- Max drawdown: 11.9%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.61
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On JNJ, the MACD Signal Line Crossover trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +66.5% against +97.0% for simply holding — a gap of 30.5 percentage points. The strategy took 37 completed trades (17 profitable, 20 not), a 46% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 11.9% versus 17.4% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into JNJ over the same window returned +74.4%. Best single trade: +15.1% (2026-01-13 to 2026-02-23); worst: -5.0% (2025-04-17 to 2025-05-13).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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