HD Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +77.7% vs +33.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on HD over 5 years: +77.7% return vs +33.7% buy-and-hold, 38 trades, 42% win rate, 14.9% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +77.7% (beat buy-and-hold at +33.7%)
- Win rate: 42% over 38 trades
- Max drawdown: 14.9%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.59
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On HD, the MACD Signal Line Crossover beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +77.7% against +33.7% for simply holding — a gap of 44.0 percentage points. The strategy took 38 completed trades (16 profitable, 22 not), a 42% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 14.9% versus 31.8% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into HD over the same window returned +9.5%. Best single trade: +23.3% (2023-10-31 to 2023-12-27); worst: -5.0% (2023-01-11 to 2023-01-19).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy Home Depot (HD) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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