DOGE: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +294.9% vs -25.3% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on DOGE-USD over 5 years: +294.9% return vs -25.3% buy-and-hold, 57 trades, 30% win rate, 47.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +294.9% (beat buy-and-hold at -25.3%)
- Win rate: 30% over 57 trades
- Max drawdown: 47.5%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.57
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On DOGE, the MACD Signal Line Crossover beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +294.9% against -25.3% for simply holding — a gap of 320.1 percentage points. The strategy took 57 completed trades (17 profitable, 40 not), a 30% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 47.5% versus 85.9% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into DOGE over the same window returned -35.4%. Best single trade: +131.1% (2024-11-05 to 2024-11-25); worst: -5.0% (2022-06-21 to 2022-06-22).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy Dogecoin when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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