AAPL Stock: MACD Signal Line Crossover Backtest — +51.9% vs +128.6% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the MACD Signal Line Crossover strategy on AAPL over 5 years: +51.9% return vs +128.6% buy-and-hold, 45 trades, 42% win rate, 17.2% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +51.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +128.6%)
- Win rate: 42% over 45 trades
- Max drawdown: 17.2%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.38
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On AAPL, the MACD Signal Line Crossover trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +51.9% against +128.6% for simply holding — a gap of 76.7 percentage points. The strategy took 45 completed trades (19 profitable, 26 not), a 42% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 17.2% versus 33.4% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into AAPL over the same window returned +76.1%. Best single trade: +22.4% (2026-03-31 to 2026-06-03); worst: -5.0% (2022-11-11 to 2022-11-29).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A momentum strategy: buy Apple (AAPL) when the MACD line crosses above its signal line, sell when it crosses back below.
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