XOM Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — +50.5% vs +101.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on XOM over 5 years: +50.5% return vs +101.1% buy-and-hold, 3 trades, 33% win rate, 20.1% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +50.5% (trailed buy-and-hold at +101.1%)
- Win rate: 33% over 3 trades
- Max drawdown: 20.1%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.37
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On XOM, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +50.5% against +101.1% for simply holding — a gap of 50.6 percentage points. The strategy took 3 completed trades (1 profitable, 2 not), a 33% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 20.1%, against 20.1% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into XOM over the same window returned +56.8%. Best single trade: +66.7% (2025-08-11 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2023-09-14 to 2023-10-04).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long ExxonMobil (XOM) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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