WMT Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — -5.0% vs +199.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on WMT over 5 years: -5.0% return vs +199.7% buy-and-hold, 1 trades, 0% win rate, 8.8% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -5.0% (trailed buy-and-hold at +199.7%)
- Win rate: 0% over 1 trades
- Max drawdown: 8.8%
- Sharpe ratio: -1.88
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On WMT, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -5.0% against +199.7% for simply holding — a gap of 204.7 percentage points. The strategy took 1 completed trade (0 profitable, 1 not), a 0% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 8.8% versus 23.3% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into WMT over the same window returned +84.7%. Best single trade: -5.0% (2022-11-15 to 2023-01-19); worst: -5.0% (2022-11-15 to 2023-01-19).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Walmart (WMT) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels