TSLA Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — -12.0% vs +40.8% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on TSLA over 5 years: -12.0% return vs +40.8% buy-and-hold, 4 trades, 25% win rate, 14.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -12.0% (trailed buy-and-hold at +40.8%)
- Win rate: 25% over 4 trades
- Max drawdown: 14.5%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.52
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On TSLA, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -12.0% against +40.8% for simply holding — a gap of 52.8 percentage points. The strategy took 4 completed trades (1 profitable, 3 not), a 25% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 14.5% versus 65.0% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into TSLA over the same window returned +50.9%. Best single trade: +2.7% (2025-07-01 to 2025-08-05); worst: -5.0% (2023-06-23 to 2023-06-26).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Tesla (TSLA) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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