PG Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — -4.4% vs +34.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on PG over 5 years: -4.4% return vs +34.7% buy-and-hold, 6 trades, 33% win rate, 20.3% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -4.4% (trailed buy-and-hold at +34.7%)
- Win rate: 33% over 6 trades
- Max drawdown: 20.3%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.51
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On PG, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -4.4% against +34.7% for simply holding — a gap of 39.2 percentage points. The strategy took 6 completed trades (2 profitable, 4 not), a 33% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 20.3% versus 21.1% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into PG over the same window returned +16.9%. Best single trade: +6.7% (2026-10-16 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2022-12-30 to 2023-01-19).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Procter & Gamble (PG) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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