NVDA Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — +793.6% vs +1249.3% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on NVDA over 5 years: +793.6% return vs +1249.3% buy-and-hold, 2 trades, 100% win rate, 28.4% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +793.6% (trailed buy-and-hold at +1249.3%)
- Win rate: 100% over 2 trades
- Max drawdown: 28.4%
- Sharpe ratio: 1.33
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On NVDA, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Sep 2026: +793.6% against +1249.3% for simply holding — a gap of 455.6 percentage points. The strategy took 2 completed trades (2 profitable, 0 not), a 100% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 28.4% versus 41.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into NVDA over the same window returned +370.3%. Best single trade: +515.8% (2023-01-24 to 2025-03-20); worst: +45.1% (2025-06-27 to 2026-09-30).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Sep 2026 (generated 2026-10-01). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Nvidia (NVDA) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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