NFLX Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — -5.0% vs +189.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on NFLX over 5 years: -5.0% return vs +189.1% buy-and-hold, 1 trades, 0% win rate, 13.6% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -5.0% (trailed buy-and-hold at +189.1%)
- Win rate: 0% over 1 trades
- Max drawdown: 13.6%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.80
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On NFLX, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -5.0% against +189.1% for simply holding — a gap of 194.1 percentage points. The strategy took 1 completed trade (0 profitable, 1 not), a 0% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 13.6% versus 53.7% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into NFLX over the same window returned +16.8%. Best single trade: -5.0% (2022-11-23 to 2022-12-28); worst: -5.0% (2022-11-23 to 2022-12-28).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Netflix (NFLX) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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