MA Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — +86.3% vs +106.4% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on MA over 5 years: +86.3% return vs +106.4% buy-and-hold, 2 trades, 100% win rate, 16.7% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +86.3% (trailed buy-and-hold at +106.4%)
- Win rate: 100% over 2 trades
- Max drawdown: 16.7%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.68
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On MA, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +86.3% against +106.4% for simply holding — a gap of 20.1 percentage points. The strategy took 2 completed trades (2 profitable, 0 not), a 100% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 16.7% versus 20.9% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into MA over the same window returned +47.0%. Best single trade: +59.9% (2022-12-27 to 2025-12-01); worst: +16.5% (2026-08-13 to 2026-11-12).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Mastercard (MA) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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