JNJ Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — +45.7% vs +97.0% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on JNJ over 5 years: +45.7% return vs +97.0% buy-and-hold, 6 trades, 17% win rate, 23.6% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +45.7% (trailed buy-and-hold at +97.0%)
- Win rate: 17% over 6 trades
- Max drawdown: 23.6%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.37
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On JNJ, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +45.7% against +97.0% for simply holding — a gap of 51.3 percentage points. The strategy took 6 completed trades (1 profitable, 5 not), a 17% win rate.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 23.6%, against 17.4% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into JNJ over the same window returned +74.4%. Best single trade: +88.3% (2025-07-09 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2022-12-13 to 2023-01-18).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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