IWM Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — +10.9% vs +60.5% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on IWM over 5 years: +10.9% return vs +60.5% buy-and-hold, 4 trades, 25% win rate, 20.0% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +10.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +60.5%)
- Win rate: 25% over 4 trades
- Max drawdown: 20.0%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.16
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On IWM, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +10.9% against +60.5% for simply holding — a gap of 49.6 percentage points. The strategy took 4 completed trades (1 profitable, 3 not), a 25% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 20.0% versus 27.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into IWM over the same window returned +36.1%. Best single trade: +29.4% (2025-08-04 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2023-01-20 to 2023-03-13).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long IWM when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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