HD Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — -18.6% vs +33.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on HD over 5 years: -18.6% return vs +33.7% buy-and-hold, 4 trades, 0% win rate, 23.3% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -18.6% (trailed buy-and-hold at +33.7%)
- Win rate: 0% over 4 trades
- Max drawdown: 23.3%
- Sharpe ratio: -1.10
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On HD, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -18.6% against +33.7% for simply holding — a gap of 52.3 percentage points. The strategy took 4 completed trades (0 profitable, 4 not), a 0% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 23.3% versus 31.8% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into HD over the same window returned +9.5%. Best single trade: -5.0% (2022-12-07 to 2023-02-21); worst: -5.0% (2022-12-07 to 2023-02-21).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Home Depot (HD) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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