DOGE: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — +31.0% vs -25.3% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on DOGE-USD over 5 years: +31.0% return vs -25.3% buy-and-hold, 5 trades, 20% win rate, 63.9% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +31.0% (beat buy-and-hold at -25.3%)
- Win rate: 20% over 5 trades
- Max drawdown: 63.9%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.18
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On DOGE, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +31.0% against -25.3% for simply holding — a gap of 56.3 percentage points. The strategy took 5 completed trades (1 profitable, 4 not), a 20% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 63.9% versus 85.9% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into DOGE over the same window returned -35.4%. Best single trade: +60.8% (2023-11-22 to 2024-07-17); worst: -5.0% (2022-11-11 to 2022-11-20).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Dogecoin when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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