DIS Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — +3.5% vs +9.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on DIS over 5 years: +3.5% return vs +9.1% buy-and-hold, 5 trades, 40% win rate, 37.1% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +3.5% (trailed buy-and-hold at +9.1%)
- Win rate: 40% over 5 trades
- Max drawdown: 37.1%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.28
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On DIS, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +3.5% against +9.1% for simply holding — a gap of 5.6 percentage points. The strategy took 5 completed trades (2 profitable, 3 not), a 40% win rate.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 37.1%, against 32.9% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into DIS over the same window returned +20.1%. Best single trade: +12.1% (2026-09-25 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2024-12-06 to 2025-01-08).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Disney (DIS) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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