BA Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — -18.8% vs +7.2% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on BA over 5 years: -18.8% return vs +7.2% buy-and-hold, 5 trades, 0% win rate, 36.7% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -18.8% (trailed buy-and-hold at +7.2%)
- Win rate: 0% over 5 trades
- Max drawdown: 36.7%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.69
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On BA, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -18.8% against +7.2% for simply holding — a gap of 26.0 percentage points. The strategy took 5 completed trades (0 profitable, 5 not), a 0% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 36.7% versus 48.3% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into BA over the same window returned -9.5%. Best single trade: -0.3% (2022-12-12 to 2023-10-18); worst: -5.0% (2023-12-20 to 2024-01-03).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Boeing (BA) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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