AMZN Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — +30.1% vs +109.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on AMZN over 5 years: +30.1% return vs +109.1% buy-and-hold, 3 trades, 33% win rate, 35.4% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +30.1% (trailed buy-and-hold at +109.1%)
- Win rate: 33% over 3 trades
- Max drawdown: 35.4%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.17
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On AMZN, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +30.1% against +109.1% for simply holding — a gap of 79.0 percentage points. The strategy took 3 completed trades (1 profitable, 2 not), a 33% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 35.4% versus 40.0% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into AMZN over the same window returned +63.8%. Best single trade: +44.2% (2023-05-26 to 2025-04-22); worst: -5.0% (2025-07-08 to 2026-02-10).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Amazon (AMZN) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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