AAPL Stock: Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) Backtest — +50.3% vs +128.6% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) strategy on AAPL over 5 years: +50.3% return vs +128.6% buy-and-hold, 4 trades, 50% win rate, 21.6% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +50.3% (trailed buy-and-hold at +128.6%)
- Win rate: 50% over 4 trades
- Max drawdown: 21.6%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.34
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On AAPL, the Golden Cross (50/200 SMA) trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +50.3% against +128.6% for simply holding — a gap of 78.3 percentage points. The strategy took 4 completed trades (2 profitable, 2 not), a 50% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 21.6% versus 33.4% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into AAPL over the same window returned +76.1%. Best single trade: +51.1% (2025-09-15 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2022-09-26 to 2022-09-29).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
One of the most widely cited trend-following signals: go long Apple (AAPL) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross'), exit when it crosses back below (a 'death cross').
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