XOM Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +53.1% vs +101.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on XOM over 5 years: +53.1% return vs +101.1% buy-and-hold, 9 trades, 33% win rate, 29.0% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +53.1% (trailed buy-and-hold at +101.1%)
- Win rate: 33% over 9 trades
- Max drawdown: 29.0%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.35
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On XOM, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +53.1% against +101.1% for simply holding — a gap of 48.0 percentage points. The strategy took 9 completed trades (3 profitable, 6 not), a 33% win rate.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 29.0%, against 20.1% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into XOM over the same window returned +56.8%. Best single trade: +66.7% (2025-08-11 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2022-08-30 to 2022-09-21).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold ExxonMobil (XOM) whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
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