WMT Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +138.9% vs +199.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on WMT over 5 years: +138.9% return vs +199.7% buy-and-hold, 2 trades, 50% win rate, 21.9% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +138.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +199.7%)
- Win rate: 50% over 2 trades
- Max drawdown: 21.9%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.91
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On WMT, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +138.9% against +199.7% for simply holding — a gap of 60.8 percentage points. The strategy took 2 completed trades (1 profitable, 1 not), a 50% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 21.9% versus 23.3% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into WMT over the same window returned +84.7%. Best single trade: +151.4% (2023-01-19 to 2026-07-27); worst: -5.0% (2022-11-15 to 2023-01-19).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold Walmart (WMT) whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels