UNH Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — -4.8% vs -16.0% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on UNH over 5 years: -4.8% return vs -16.0% buy-and-hold, 11 trades, 36% win rate, 21.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -4.8% (beat buy-and-hold at -16.0%)
- Win rate: 36% over 11 trades
- Max drawdown: 21.5%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.27
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On UNH, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -4.8% against -16.0% for simply holding — a gap of 11.2 percentage points. The strategy took 11 completed trades (4 profitable, 7 not), a 36% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 21.5% versus 61.4% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into UNH over the same window returned -2.1%. Best single trade: +9.2% (2026-02-05 to 2026-02-27); worst: -5.0% (2022-08-30 to 2023-01-05).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold UnitedHealth (UNH) whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels