SPY Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +67.8% vs +101.9% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on SPY over 5 years: +67.8% return vs +101.9% buy-and-hold, 2 trades, 100% win rate, 18.8% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +67.8% (trailed buy-and-hold at +101.9%)
- Win rate: 100% over 2 trades
- Max drawdown: 18.8%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.60
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On SPY, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +67.8% against +101.9% for simply holding — a gap of 34.1 percentage points. The strategy took 2 completed trades (2 profitable, 0 not), a 100% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 18.8%, against 18.8% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into SPY over the same window returned +48.3%. Best single trade: +33.9% (2023-01-26 to 2025-04-16); worst: +25.3% (2025-06-27 to 2026-11-12).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold SPY whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels