MSFT Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +41.9% vs +107.6% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on MSFT over 5 years: +41.9% return vs +107.6% buy-and-hold, 7 trades, 57% win rate, 24.1% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +41.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +107.6%)
- Win rate: 57% over 7 trades
- Max drawdown: 24.1%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.28
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On MSFT, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +41.9% against +107.6% for simply holding — a gap of 65.6 percentage points. The strategy took 7 completed trades (4 profitable, 3 not), a 57% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 24.1% versus 34.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into MSFT over the same window returned +44.8%. Best single trade: +57.7% (2023-03-20 to 2024-11-29); worst: -5.0% (2024-12-11 to 2024-12-30).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold Microsoft (MSFT) whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels