LLY Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +276.0% vs +387.2% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on LLY over 5 years: +276.0% return vs +387.2% buy-and-hold, 4 trades, 75% win rate, 24.1% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +276.0% (trailed buy-and-hold at +387.2%)
- Win rate: 75% over 4 trades
- Max drawdown: 24.1%
- Sharpe ratio: 1.10
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On LLY, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +276.0% against +387.2% for simply holding — a gap of 111.2 percentage points. The strategy took 4 completed trades (3 profitable, 1 not), a 75% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 24.1% versus 34.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into LLY over the same window returned +135.9%. Best single trade: +114.7% (2023-04-17 to 2024-12-13); worst: -5.0% (2025-11-05 to 2026-04-27).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold Eli Lilly (LLY) whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
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