IWM Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +20.9% vs +60.5% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on IWM over 5 years: +20.9% return vs +60.5% buy-and-hold, 7 trades, 29% win rate, 22.1% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +20.9% (trailed buy-and-hold at +60.5%)
- Win rate: 29% over 7 trades
- Max drawdown: 22.1%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.05
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On IWM, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +20.9% against +60.5% for simply holding — a gap of 39.7 percentage points. The strategy took 7 completed trades (2 profitable, 5 not), a 29% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 22.1% versus 27.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into IWM over the same window returned +36.1%. Best single trade: +29.4% (2025-08-04 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2023-01-20 to 2023-03-13).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold IWM whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels