HD Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — -23.5% vs +33.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on HD over 5 years: -23.5% return vs +33.7% buy-and-hold, 11 trades, 27% win rate, 33.8% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -23.5% (trailed buy-and-hold at +33.7%)
- Win rate: 27% over 11 trades
- Max drawdown: 33.8%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.67
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On HD, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -23.5% against +33.7% for simply holding — a gap of 57.2 percentage points. The strategy took 11 completed trades (3 profitable, 8 not), a 27% win rate.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 33.8%, against 31.8% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into HD over the same window returned +9.5%. Best single trade: +3.5% (2024-04-25 to 2025-04-08); worst: -5.0% (2022-12-07 to 2023-02-21).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold Home Depot (HD) whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
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