DOGE: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +13.5% vs -25.3% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on DOGE-USD over 5 years: +13.5% return vs -25.3% buy-and-hold, 18 trades, 28% win rate, 70.4% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +13.5% (beat buy-and-hold at -25.3%)
- Win rate: 28% over 18 trades
- Max drawdown: 70.4%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.17
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On DOGE, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow beat buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +13.5% against -25.3% for simply holding — a gap of 38.8 percentage points. The strategy took 18 completed trades (5 profitable, 13 not), a 28% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 70.4% versus 85.9% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into DOGE over the same window returned -35.4%. Best single trade: +60.8% (2023-11-22 to 2024-07-17); worst: -5.0% (2022-11-11 to 2022-11-20).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold Dogecoin whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels