DIA Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +45.2% vs +77.5% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on DIA over 5 years: +45.2% return vs +77.5% buy-and-hold, 3 trades, 67% win rate, 15.9% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +45.2% (trailed buy-and-hold at +77.5%)
- Win rate: 67% over 3 trades
- Max drawdown: 15.9%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.37
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On DIA, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +45.2% against +77.5% for simply holding — a gap of 32.3 percentage points. The strategy took 3 completed trades (2 profitable, 1 not), a 67% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
It did not buy that return with less pain: the strategy's max drawdown was 15.9%, against 15.9% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into DIA over the same window returned +36.4%. Best single trade: +27.4% (2023-03-10 to 2025-04-22); worst: -5.0% (2022-12-12 to 2023-03-10).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold DIA whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels