APLD Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +376.2% vs +437.2% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on APLD over 5 years: +376.2% return vs +437.2% buy-and-hold, 19 trades, 16% win rate, 67.8% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +376.2% (trailed buy-and-hold at +437.2%)
- Win rate: 16% over 19 trades
- Max drawdown: 67.8%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.83
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On APLD, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +376.2% against +437.2% for simply holding — a gap of 61.0 percentage points. The strategy took 19 completed trades (3 profitable, 16 not), a 16% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 67.8% versus 76.7% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into APLD over the same window returned +151.9%. Best single trade: +191.4% (2025-07-08 to 2026-08-26); worst: -5.0% (2023-02-09 to 2023-02-14).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold Applied Digital (APLD) whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
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