AAPL Stock: 20-Day EMA Trend Follow Backtest — +42.3% vs +128.6% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow strategy on AAPL over 5 years: +42.3% return vs +128.6% buy-and-hold, 6 trades, 33% win rate, 24.5% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +42.3% (trailed buy-and-hold at +128.6%)
- Win rate: 33% over 6 trades
- Max drawdown: 24.5%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.27
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On AAPL, the 20-Day EMA Trend Follow trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +42.3% against +128.6% for simply holding — a gap of 86.3 percentage points. The strategy took 6 completed trades (2 profitable, 4 not), a 33% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 24.5% versus 33.4% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into AAPL over the same window returned +76.1%. Best single trade: +51.1% (2025-09-15 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2022-09-26 to 2022-09-29).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A simple trend-following rule: hold Apple (AAPL) whenever price is above its 20-day EMA, exit whenever price drops below it.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels