TSLA Stock: Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter Backtest — +24.5% vs +40.8% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter strategy on TSLA over 5 years: +24.5% return vs +40.8% buy-and-hold, 2 trades, 50% win rate, 15.7% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +24.5% (trailed buy-and-hold at +40.8%)
- Win rate: 50% over 2 trades
- Max drawdown: 15.7%
- Sharpe ratio: 0.08
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On TSLA, the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +24.5% against +40.8% for simply holding — a gap of 16.3 percentage points. The strategy took 2 completed trades (1 profitable, 1 not), a 50% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 15.7% versus 65.0% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into TSLA over the same window returned +50.9%. Best single trade: +31.1% (2026-07-29 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2026-07-23 to 2026-07-29).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A multi-timeframe filter: only buy Tesla (TSLA) on a daily RSI oversold signal (below 30) when the weekly trend is already bullish (50-week SMA above the 200-week SMA) — a short-term entry trigger gated by a longer-term trend confirmation, not just the daily signal alone. Sell when daily RSI rises back above 70.
Run this exact rule on your own ticker — Test-My-Rule, free · StratIQ Premium: daily picks with exact levels