NFLX Stock: Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter Backtest — -26.5% vs +189.1% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter strategy on NFLX over 5 years: -26.5% return vs +189.1% buy-and-hold, 6 trades, 0% win rate, 39.7% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: -26.5% (trailed buy-and-hold at +189.1%)
- Win rate: 0% over 6 trades
- Max drawdown: 39.7%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.68
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On NFLX, the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: -26.5% against +189.1% for simply holding — a gap of 215.6 percentage points. The strategy took 6 completed trades (0 profitable, 6 not), a 0% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 39.7% versus 53.7% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into NFLX over the same window returned +16.8%. Best single trade: -5.0% (2025-12-10 to 2026-01-15); worst: -5.0% (2025-12-10 to 2026-01-15).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A multi-timeframe filter: only buy Netflix (NFLX) on a daily RSI oversold signal (below 30) when the weekly trend is already bullish (50-week SMA above the 200-week SMA) — a short-term entry trigger gated by a longer-term trend confirmation, not just the daily signal alone. Sell when daily RSI rises back above 70.
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