IWM Stock: Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter Backtest — +3.4% vs +60.5% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter strategy on IWM over 5 years: +3.4% return vs +60.5% buy-and-hold, 1 trades, 100% win rate, 4.6% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +3.4% (trailed buy-and-hold at +60.5%)
- Win rate: 100% over 1 trades
- Max drawdown: 4.6%
- Sharpe ratio: -1.20
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On IWM, the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +3.4% against +60.5% for simply holding — a gap of 57.1 percentage points. The strategy took 1 completed trade (1 profitable, 0 not), a 100% win rate — a small sample, so read this as a clue about the rule, not proof.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 4.6% versus 27.5% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into IWM over the same window returned +36.1%. Best single trade: +3.4% (2026-10-14 to 2026-11-12); worst: +3.4% (2026-10-14 to 2026-11-12).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A multi-timeframe filter: only buy IWM on a daily RSI oversold signal (below 30) when the weekly trend is already bullish (50-week SMA above the 200-week SMA) — a short-term entry trigger gated by a longer-term trend confirmation, not just the daily signal alone. Sell when daily RSI rises back above 70.
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