HD Stock: Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter Backtest — +0.5% vs +33.7% Buy-and-Hold
Real backtest of the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter strategy on HD over 5 years: +0.5% return vs +33.7% buy-and-hold, 5 trades, 20% win rate, 23.8% max drawdown. Computed on real historical data, not simulated — full trade log and verdict inside.
- Total return: +0.5% (trailed buy-and-hold at +33.7%)
- Win rate: 20% over 5 trades
- Max drawdown: 23.8%
- Sharpe ratio: -0.38
- Period: 5 years of real historical price data
What the numbers say
On HD, the Daily RSI + Weekly Trend Filter trailed buy-and-hold over the five years through Nov 2026: +0.5% against +33.7% for simply holding — a gap of 33.2 percentage points. The strategy took 5 completed trades (1 profitable, 4 not), a 20% win rate.
That came with a shallower worst stretch: the strategy's max drawdown was 23.8% versus 31.8% for buy-and-hold. Dollar-cost averaging into HD over the same window returned +9.5%. Best single trade: +23.4% (2026-09-30 to 2026-11-12); worst: -5.0% (2025-10-07 to 2025-11-14).
Computed by StratIQ's backtest engine on real daily prices through Nov 2026 (generated 2026-11-12). Fills are assumed at the close with a 5% stop-loss; slippage and commissions are not modeled. This is a historical study of a rule — not a pick, not a recommendation, and not financial advice.
A multi-timeframe filter: only buy Home Depot (HD) on a daily RSI oversold signal (below 30) when the weekly trend is already bullish (50-week SMA above the 200-week SMA) — a short-term entry trigger gated by a longer-term trend confirmation, not just the daily signal alone. Sell when daily RSI rises back above 70.
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